What to make of the Coronavirus?
2ND EDITORIAL NOTE: When I wrote this there was a lot of information that was unknown, and a lot of false reports that had not yet been revealed as false. COVID did not turn out to be what it seemed to be shaping up to be in the early stages and I also believe I missed what might have been clearer to others in the early stages, and only came to see clearer what it was later on in the year. Nevertheless, the second half of the article about thinking through disasters is still an appropriate way to process through hardships as they come, even if I would qualify or modify a few of my views since this was initially published.
Editorial note: Why did I choose to write about the coronavirus? Honestly, part of it was processing my own heart and emotions as I see the headlines, track the spread, and anticipate the future. I've had to put my own heart in check, submit to Christ's commands regarding anxiety, and direct myself back to trusting the Lord through uncertain times. This is the fruit of that. I hope it is helpful.
Stats/Maps: [A] [B] [C]
Editorial note: Why did I choose to write about the coronavirus? Honestly, part of it was processing my own heart and emotions as I see the headlines, track the spread, and anticipate the future. I've had to put my own heart in check, submit to Christ's commands regarding anxiety, and direct myself back to trusting the Lord through uncertain times. This is the fruit of that. I hope it is helpful.
Stats/Maps: [A] [B] [C]
The Novel Coronavirus; aka 2019-nCoV; aka SARS-CoV-2; aka COVID-19.
A rose by any other name, amirite?
Many people have said many things regarding the new disease
that is exploding across the world. Despite exponential growth in multiple
nations, as of this writing, there are still some who are hesitant to label
this a pandemic. It is my belief that this will change soon, and it will be
globally recognized as a pandemic
in the coming days or weeks. I’ve kept a pretty close eye on this for around a
month now, and it’s fascinating to read the different responses, predictions,
and conspiracy theories from various sectors of the internet.
While I have taken some level of entertainment at the
extremes of all the responses I’ve seen (downplaying, exaggerating, etc.), I’ve
wanted to operate on the basis of data-driven facts and reasonable extrapolation,
rather than knee-jerk reactions to headlines. Here is what I’m seeing:
What we know
This is not the common flu. I’ve heard many pundits
say that this novel coronavirus is nothing worse than the seasonal flu that
rears its head every year. With the data we have available, anyone making such
claims is simply being irresponsible as that claim is demonstrably false as
anyone willing to take an honest look at the data will have to concede.
Because we are still relatively early on with this new
virus, it is nearly impossible to accurately say “this
is the mortality rate” though the data we have right now makes it clear
that it is significantly higher than that of seasonal influenza. I’ve been
seeing stats that say anything from 3% (by dividing total deaths with total
confirmed cases) and 6% (by dividing the total deaths from the total number of
cases for which we know the outcome (recovered + died)).
However, both these numbers are almost certainly high because there are likely
many who have had mild cases that are not being counted, and there are still
tens of thousands of cases for which we do not yet know the outcome. But even
if the mortality rate is as low as 1%, that is still 10 times higher than the
mortality rate of the common flu, which generally sits around 0.1%[1] A 1% mortality rate may not sound high, but
when millions are infected the number will be high, even if the percentage is
low.
This is not SARS. SARS—though vastly more deadly than
COVID-19—after initially striking fear into global hearts, proved to be relatively
easily containable because it could only spread once symptoms appeared; simply
isolate those with symptoms, and the disease sputtered out. COVID-19, on the
other hand, has a very long incubation period (2-14 days, with some cases as
long as 27
days) and can be spread during this incubation time, making it
significantly more difficult, if not impossible, to contain. SARS only infected
a little over 8,000 people. COVID-19 shot past that number weeks ago and is
likely to continue to climb.
Compared to other diseases. COVID-19 is significantly
outpacing two of the more concerning outbreaks (SARS, and H1N1, aka the swine
flu) that have occurred in recent years as the chart below demonstrates (this
chart is updated regularly which you can access here):
H1N1 ended up infecting an estimated 60
million people in the U.S., and as many as an estimated 1.4 billion globally
so to see COVID-19 outpacing that at this early stage is worth noting. (H1N1
had a mortality rate of 0.01-0.08%, or as
low as 1/10th that of the seasonal flu)
On the bright side, this new virus is nowhere near as deadly
as the so-called Spanish
Flu of 1918, which infected an estimated 500 million, and killed 40-50 million, and maybe
as many as 100 million, for a mortality rate somewhere between 10 and 20%.
Case Severity and Overloaded Hospitals. 82% of
reported active cases are considered “mild”, which leaves 18% to be labeled as
“serious or critical.”
As with many illnesses, this virus takes a harder toll on the elderly and those
with other health conditions, and most of the deaths fall into those
demographics.
I’ve read many people who look at those numbers and dismissively
say, “82% of people have mild cases, and people are worried about this thing??”
While those numbers might not seem concerning on their face, when a city of a
few hundred thousand—or a few million—people gets hit, and you’re looking at
tens of thousands of cases, the concern is the hospitals and health care
systems begin to get overwhelmed, and the ability to adequately care for these
patients goes waaaaay down, not to mention caring for all the “normal”
emergencies that need immediate attention, like heart attacks or traumatic
injuries from automobile accidents, etc. Therefore it’s of little surprise that
the mortality rate within the city
of Wuhan is significantly higher than that in other areas where the
population density is lower. China responded rapidly to this virus by building
temporary hospitals in as little as ten days (!) because its
existing hospitals were not adequate to properly care for those infected.
Without those hospitals, the mortality rate is likely to have been much higher.
Exponential Growth. One of the harder things for us to wrap our minds around is the concept of exponential growth. When things start doubling, the numbers don't seem that alarming. But then suddenly things start to explode rapidly. Check out this video (~9min) for a simple explanation of this in relation to epidemics, and this thread (which led to this article) for what this potentially means practically in our health care systems.
Exponential Growth. One of the harder things for us to wrap our minds around is the concept of exponential growth. When things start doubling, the numbers don't seem that alarming. But then suddenly things start to explode rapidly. Check out this video (~9min) for a simple explanation of this in relation to epidemics, and this thread (which led to this article) for what this potentially means practically in our health care systems.
Economics. Another angle of concern is the impact on
the global economy that is simply swimming (or rather drowning)
in debt.
For a reference point, it is estimated that the SARS outbreak (that only had
~8,000 cases) set the global economy back anywhere from 30-100 billion USD.
That was back in 2003, when the US, and the world for that matter, were
significantly less economically dependent upon China. China is now a much bigger
player, and the supply
chains
have already
suffered
significant disruptions. This can only be assumed to worsen as more countries
face quarantines and lockdowns in an effort to contain this virus.
There’s also the issue of panic buying. While there is
certainly some wisdom in stocking up on essentials, there comes a point when
people begin to react out of fear rather than act on wisdom and you
end up with cases of people hoarding supplies, stories of armed robbery for toilet paper and
pictures reminiscent of Black
Friday, except its food and water instead of TVs and game consoles. This
has also created a face mask
shortage
for health
care workers and home
improvement stores have sold out of all kinds of masks. Coming soon to a store
near you.
As the storm was brewing abroad, the U.S. seemed to be
dodging a bullet as the only cases that were here were directly related to
travel to China or the Diamond
Princess.
But now more cases are being diagnosed; community spread has started and may
have been going
on for a while. Buckle up; it could be a bumpy ride.
While a variety of factors may lead to slowing this thing
down (favorable mutation, vaccine, warmer weather of spring/summer, etc.), we
have enough data right now to say that this virus isn’t
going away any
time soon, it’s going to claim many lives, and it’s going to have a
significant economic impact.
What’s my point?
Many might read the above and be driven to anxiety, and it's
exactly that kind of response that I want to address. I just spent a bit of
time with ample documentation to say that we have what they call a situation on
our hands, and while I do want people to take the data for what it is and act
appropriately to be prepared, I am more concerned with our hearts and our
actions toward others in times of public fear.
The question therefore before us is, how should
Christians respond?
Even if this particular outbreak eventually sputters out in
a similar fashion to SARS, the question of how Christians should respond to pandemics,
or other catastrophes in general, is worth considering. Not only must we guard
ourselves against getting swept up in the hysteria, but we also must be
prepared to dialogue with others about the foundational issues. There will
inevitably be many conversations taking place between Christians and
non-Christians, and the non-Christians will want to know why this is happening.
They will have fears that can only be ultimately addressed with the hope of the
Gospel. Will we be prepared to give hope? Will we be able to articulate how a
good and loving God could allow such suffering in the world? Will we be able to
stand when the world around us crumbles? Will we have joy even as our own loved
ones are taken from us by such things?
The rest of this article is intended to help Christians
respond biblically to things like pandemics and answer some of the pressing
questions that may be in our own hearts and are certainly in the hearts
of those in the world.
Is This God’s Judgment?
The short answer to that question is simply “I don’t know.”
It very well could be. But all the same, since we are a little lacking in the
credible prophet department these days, we do not have a direct word from God
that says “For this and that I bring this disease upon you” Amos
style.
But what if it is? Should that surprise us? A disease that
started in China and has already had significant economic impact could very
well be God’s judgment on that nation for a variety of national sins. The
one-child policy that led to over 336 million abortions (including forced
abortions and the forced sterilization of millions), the alarming
level
of persecution
against Christians,
the mistreatment
of ethnic minorities like the Uighurs,
the crackdown on dissenting voices, protesters, and activists, and a whole
host of other things that leads to a very loaded “etc., etc., etc.”, etc. The
communist government has rejected their creator, usurped and abused authority,
forsaken the proper role of government, and has led countless millions to share
in their sins. If the coronavirus was God’s judgment against that nation,
should we be surprised?
Maybe it’s easy to think about this being God’s judgment on them
over there. But what about at home? We don’t yet know how severe things
will be here. It could be that in a few short weeks or months we could have
death tolls in the thousands and cases in the tens or even hundreds of
thousands. If that were to happen, would that be God’s judgment? Again, I must
say “I don’t know.”
But what if it is? Should that surprise us? When our nation
murders thousands of babies per
day and over 63 million
since Roe v. Wade in ’73, sanctions and celebrates various forms of
immorality, drowns us, our children, and our grandchildren in national debt, and seeks to add the designated hitter to
the national
league, etc., etc., etc. (Okay, maybe that last one doesn’t count as a
national sin, but still…) The U.S. government has largely rejected the creator,
usurped and abused authority, forsaken the proper role of government, and led
countless millions to share in their sins. If this coronavirus was God’s judgment against this nation, should we be surprised?
And it’s easy for Christians to sit back, shake our heads, wag
our fingers, and make comments about “those people” who are corrupting American
minds, meanwhile we have spent years doing nothing except sitting back, shaking
our heads and wagging our fingers. Parents have failed to pass along the faith
once for all delivered to the saints to their children, Pastors have failed to
demonstrate how God’s Word speaks to our cultural moments, our politics, our policies,
etc. Christians by and large have failed to go into the marketplace and speak
truth into the public square. We have bought into lies that lead us to believe that we are to leave
our religion at home when we go to work, discuss politics, or seek education, etc.
And I’m not just talking about the evangelicals’ favorite talking points of
abortion and sexual immorality, as important as those things are. We have
failed to consistently apply God’s Word to the issue of the national debt, to
the issue of the God-given role of government by allowing our government to
leave that realm and take on greater and greater degrees of authority and
control over our lives and resources, to the issues of the great miscarriages
of justice within our courts, to a whole host of other things that lead to a
very loaded, “etc., etc., etc.” Where is the Christian voice in the face of all
this? Not only are these things present, but many of us voted for them.
But then there are those that didn’t vote. I’ve heard
pundits say that if all of America’s so-called evangelicals simply turned out
to vote, they would win every election. I’ve not been able to verify the
veracity of that claim, and quite frankly I have my doubt about how many truly
biblically-minded evangelicals there really are in this nation, but if that is
true, what are we doing?
So if God were to judge this nation, should that surprise
us? We certainly deserve it.
Again, I do not know if the coronavirus is God’s judgment.
But whether it is, or it isn’t, we as a nation must repent. We as Christians
must repent for allowing these things to take place on our watch, for not
speaking into the culture what the Word of God has to say on any given issue.
It is a sword after all, and sharper than any man-made sword ever crafted. Let’s
use it.
Consequences of Living in a Sin-Cursed World
Since we cannot say definitively that this is God’s judgment,
we must also entertain the idea of “what if it’s not?” How do we understand
evil, pain, and suffering that is not directly tied to the righteous judgment
of God for specific sins?
To understand this, we must understand how sin entered the
world and its impact on creation. For those who have been Christians or had
exposure to the Bible for any length of time, this will not be new information.
But it is helpful to rehearse it as we are sure to hear people ask, “why all
this suffering?”
The answer to that question takes us back to the first three
chapters of Genesis. God created the world in perfect innocence. No sin. No suffering.
No disease. No death. He created man in His own image, meaning that mankind
resembles God in unique ways that set him apart from the rest of creation, and mankind
is to be God’s representatives on earth, having dominion over all creation.
But then man chose to rebel against his creator. The proper
order of creation authority was reversed. Sin entered the world through one man,
and death through sin, and death spread to all mankind, for all have sinned
(Rom 5:12).
The corrupting influence of sin was felt across all sectors
of creation. All of creation fell under the curse of sin and now groans as it
awaits the day the Lord returns and sets all things back in order (Romans 8:18-25).
Until then, hardship, pain, suffering, disease, and death are all regular features
in our lives on this earth. Thus, we have the coronavirus; because of the curse
of sin, creation is subject to disease and death. Sin has consequences, and
those consequences have ripple effects (that at times feel more like tidal
waves) that roll across time and impact people for generations.
God is all-loving, all-powerful, and all-good. For
many, this means that He ought to eradicate such suffering. However, holding such
suppositions puts you into the judgment seat over the God who made you. Not a
wise line of reasoning. The reality is that because God is who He is, He uses the
pain and suffering of this world to remind us of the wretchedness of our own
sin, show us our own mortality, and drive us back to him. Just like when we
discipline our own children when they do what is wrong to remind them of the
consequences of sin, so too the suffering of this world reminds us of the
consequences of sin and our dependence upon God for our every breath. Our
response should be one of grief and repentance, not one of accusation which
only adds sin upon sin.
Fear Not; Be Anxious for Nothing
When we stare into the face of a global pandemic, its only
natural that fear and anxiety begin to grow. We are talking about a
potentially severe illness and many deaths, after all. But fear and anxiety are
inappropriate responses for Christians. Here’s why:
“God in His love always wills what is best for us. In His
wisdom He always knows what is best, and in His sovereignty He has the power to
bring it about.”[2]
Let’s break this down.
God is Perfect in His Love. We have the assurances of
Scripture that we are loved by God and that He always desires to work all
things together for our
good and His
glory. This is what he wants for us.
God is Infinite in His Wisdom. Though God may want
what is best for us, does he actually know what is best? Yes! He most certainly
does! His wisdom exceeds
that of the wisest man, as the heavens are higher than the earth, so are God’s
ways higher
than our ways, oh the breadth and the depth of the wisdom
and knowledge of God, how unsearchable are His ways! Not only does God want
what is best for us, He knows what is best for us! Sometimes that path
is a difficult one. Sometimes what is best may not feel like it is the
best. But God’s wisdom exceeds our own.
God is Completely Sovereign. This means that He
is
in
control.
There is nothing that takes Him by surprise, there is nothing that has ever
happened, or ever will happen, that is outside of His command. He raises
kings up and sets them down, He brings
pestilence and disease and sends them away, He causes
the rain to fall and the sun to shine, He is in charge of it all. Even the
coronavirus. So not only does he want what is best for us and knows what is
best for us, but he also has the power to bring it about, and He does.
If we truly believe this to be true about God, then there is
no basis for fear or anxiety. Why would I fear what God has sovereignly
ordained for my good? Why would I allow myself to become crippled by anxiety by
that which God intends to use for His glory? I should confidently say with the
Apostle Paul, “I consider that the sufferings of this present time are not
worth comparing with the glory that is to be revealed to us” (Rom 8:18).
The reality is that every time fear, worry, and anxiety rear
their ugly heads due to the events that the Sovereign Lord has brought into our
lives, that reveals something about the condition of our own hearts and what we
believe about God. It demonstrates that we are not trusting the God who has
proven Himself to be infinitely trustworthy; we are either doubting His love, His
wisdom, or His sovereignty. Considering how
many
times
the Bible speaks
to our fears
and anxieties
and seeks
to drive
us to dependence
on the Lord, when we find those things creeping in we must repent of that sin. Is
anxiety keeping you up at night? Repent and fling yourself upon the loving,
wise, and sovereign God. Is fear driving you to hoard resources you really don’t
need? Repent and be willing to share those resources with others.
Remind Yourself of What is True. We are a people who
are so prone to forget what God has done, so prone to forget who God is, and so
prone to forget what is true. Many
times
throughout the pages of Scripture we are called
to remember,
and Paul
and Peter
both wrote at times with the purpose of reminding the readers of information
they were previously taught. When we find ourselves in moments of uncertainty,
we would do well to take the time to review what is certain. God wills
what is best, He knows what is best, He is able to bring that about, and He
does. That’s true even when it doesn’t feel like it, so we must remind
ourselves of that often.
Opportunities to Show Christ’s Love
One of the amazing things about hard times like these is it
gives Christians opportunities to practically show the world the love of
Christ. Throughout history, many Christians have caught diseases and have died
simply because they were the ones who were willing to put themselves in harm's
ways for the sake of serving and caring for others. From the plagues
in the first few centuries of the church to the black
death to more modern diseases such as Ebola,
and even to the novel coronavirus in China,
Christians have consistently shown up and put their own lives on the line in
order to serve others. We may very well have similar opportunities to serve and
minister to those in need, and it may indeed cost us something significant,
ever our very lives. Will you be willing to step up to the plate and follow the
example of those who have gone before you?
Opportunity for the Gospel
In times like these, we are faced with the reality of our
own mortality. If we survive COVID-19, we will eventually die of something
else. This can be a powerful moment to really get the good news of the Gospel
out to people who are so desperately in need of hope. While it is inappropriate
for Christians to fear things like the coronavirus, it is only natural and I
would even say right for non-Christians to be afraid. They should be afraid of
the prospect of standing before the thrice-holy judge of the universe and
having to give an account of their sins which will lead to them enduring the
wrath of God for all eternity. Their fear of death is evidence that they know
God exists and that they are accountable to him. We have an opportunity to help
them understand how to live without fear: repent and place your trust in Jesus
Christ alone for your salvation.
Conclusion
We have no way of knowing how bad this particular outbreak
will end up being. Right now we live in a unique cultural moment where fear is
high; it would be inappropriate for Christians to join the hysteria. Be
prepared; be wise; but don’t succumb to fear. Be ready
to give an answer when someone asks about the hope that is in you. Help people
understand why bad things happen. Help them grasp how they too can have hope. Be
ready to help those in need, to share food and resources, to risk infection, to
face death.
If you’ve made it all the way through this, I’m impressed. Even
my sermons don’t run this long. I hope this was helpful for you and I’d be
interested in your feedback. Drop me a note below.
Be blessed; be a blessing
[1]
I’m finding this number practically everywhere, but have struggled to find an
actual medical source for this number.
[2]
I don’t know who said it first, but Jerry Bridges quoted this in his book Trusting
God
I made it all the way to the end! Thank you for taking the time to write this. It gives me much to ponder.
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